Western Ukraine Flood Risk Assessment

In November 1998, a disaster situation occurred in the Carpathian Mountains of western Ukraine. Days of abnormal rain caused increased runoff from the mountains, flooding major towns and villages at lower elevations and displacing thousands of people. Mudslides were a particularly serious problem, causing extensive loss of property and lives. As part of the Ukrainian government's response to the disaster, the Ukrainian Ministry of Emergency Situations and Chornobyl Affairs requested that ULRMC develop a pilot GIS to highlight the nature of the floods and to provide predictive models for potential natural disaster impacts on infrastructure and settlements from the then-anticipated spring 1999 floods.

Working with the Ukrainian Ministry of Emergency Situations and Chornobyl Affairs, Hydrometcenter of Ukraine, the Center of Aerospace and Ecological Monitoring in Lviv, ERIM International, and the U.S. Geological Survey, ULRMC developed GIS data layers using SPOT and Landsat satellite imagery, as well as existing elevation data and maps, to conduct integrated spatial analyses and modeling.

Figure 1 illustrates the data resources used to achieve specific requirements.

In Figure 2, predictions are made concerning flood risk impacts on specific human infrastructure throughout the greater area of the Carpathian Mountains.

For a detailed analysis of potential risk on localities, GIS tools, such as that shown in Figure 3, were developed by ULRMC.

One of the more interesting elements of this project is illustrated in Figure 4 which compares 1968 and 1998 satellite imagery for Svalyava, an urban city in the Carpathian Mountains. It is apparent in the 1968 image, through the use of a flood inundation model, that certain areas of the city were more exposed to flood risks than others. Because of the lack of any GIS capability at the time, city planners allowed for developments to be undertaken in the same areas that today can be easily identified in the 1998 image as having a high potential for flooding.

This project, the first realized by ULRMC, demonstrates the ability to respond in a timely fashion to urgent requirements of federal and local authorities and to develop decision support tools that can assist with urban planning and the identification of high-risk areas. ULRMC envisions the use of similar GIS tools in assisting appropriate administrative authorities with emergency evacuation planning and response.